A Further Warning: Norovirus Attacks Cruise Ship. 129 Passengers Harmed. It Shows How Easily and Often Dangerous Outbreaks Can Occur

I am a former FDA COO and Harvard faculty member, and a decades-long infectious disease spread risk management expert. (It's the rate, depth, and breadth of "spread" that most counts.) At the FDA, I co-led its last major internal reform. At Harvard, I taught policy, law, regulation, and management, including, most prominently, risk management. I also served in the US Military during the Vietnam War.

In my prior jobs, I stayed on top of how best to manage the risks facing our nation and its allies—and their businesses. I continue to do the same.

A few weeks ago, the CDC reported that a significant (and sometimes deadly or long-term otherwise dangerous) pathogen significantly harmed one hundred twenty-nine passengers and 25 crew members (roughly 150 people) on a cruise ship. The pathogen was undiagnosed. But based on its severe symptoms (such as some two days of diarrhea, vomiting, and dehydration), it is most likely Norovirus. This contagious disease harms 685,000,000 and kills 200,000 annually worldwide.

 Although not as well known or feared as the more widely respected COVID-19, the Flu, or RSV, Norovirus is a viral disease whose spread we must take very seriously. It is not only sometimes deadly but is highly contagious for an extended period, as well.

The Nature of Norovirus and Its Threat

If one has Norovirus, they are contagious from the moment their symptoms start until they end, usually lasting two days and until at least three days post recovery—in other words, for five days on average. Some people might be contagious for as long as two weeks after they recover. Accordingly, many people are exposed, and the disease rapidly spreads.

Because of its nature and symptoms, Norovirus is the likely cause of many ship outbreaks, both past and present, whether they were confirmed or not by formal testing. And the CDC reports a 52% rise over the five-year average of Norovirus outbreaks (or their scale) not only at sea but also on land in the following US States: Alabama, Colorado, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.

Growing Threat

Given these numbers, recent Norovirus outbreaks cumulatively are far less than a pandemic or endemic-sized set in the US. Still, the CDC is concerned about the number of outbreaks since each is significant, and the number is growing and will likely increase further, perhaps dramatically, throughout the winter. Its means of transfer from human to human is sometimes airborne but mostly transferred from person to person by the target's contact with or consumption of an infected object, such as a doorknob or a dessert.

Adding this data to the frightening recent World Health Organization (WHO) warning, the hyper frequency with which dangerous infectious disease pathogens attack us (sometimes deadly and very contagious, i.e., spreadable), we must now be far more aware and alert.

A few weeks ago, in Davos, the Director-General of WHO warned all nations and people of the world that by one means or another, a pathogen capable of killing 50,000,000 people worldwide is coming at any time and that it is not a question of if, only when, it will arrive. It could arrive in three months or ten years.

 But it is coming. So, our government agency and business leaders better be prepared soon—we cannot afford from a people-sense and economy[1]sense to let dangerous pathogens catch us off guard. I will comment further on WHO's dire warning in a coming publication.

What are the details?

Contaminated food, water, surfaces, or humans cause the spread from which large numbers of people are significantly harmed. Significant risk factors are sharing meals and living or working in close quarters, such as overcrowding or crowding (for work, recreation, sleep, or dining) in public spaces or transport, such as busses, trains, planes, and ships—or homes.

These are the same factors for spreading other less well-known diseases, such as tuberculosis. We must prepare ourselves to combat these lesser-known dangerous pathogens in addition to the better-known ones.

Regrettably, there is no vaccine or effective specific treatment for Norovirus. Treatments all seek to reduce symptoms or prevent diarrhea, vomiting, or dehydration symptoms, all three of which, if not properly managed, can become life-threatening or otherwise dangerous, from getting out of hand.

Solutions

Norovirus attacks are common in both developed and developing countries. There are good PCR tests for it, though. Safely2Prosperity's infectious disease spread risk management Safety Program can help prepare a ship, for example, to prevent, mitigate, or control the outbreak or growth of the number of infected individuals and, with the help of our platform products, trace and risk manage the source(s) of the outbreaks.

This way, specific crew work facilities or tourist areas can be closed off to stop the spread, forcing the pathogen's spread to expire independently without closing other parts of the facility or ship, such as floors or rooms.