And You Thought the Level of Government Agency and Business Recklessness in the Hawaii Fire was Obscene!

 BOSTON: As a former FDA COO and Harvard faculty member, I taught and practiced health and healthcare risk management for over 40 years. But never have I been so worried for our nation and its businesses, jobs, and people. So, I am ringing a bell.

Since the beginning of my career, I have dedicated myself to one overwhelming concern: Risk management HC services and products and their use to benefit the life and safety of a single person to all of humankind—and prevent their misuse from destroying life or the safety of us all. For the past four years, I have specialized in the risk management of infectious disease spread—the last frontier of medicine.

As Executive Chairman of my new company, Safely2Prosperity, it’s my immediate job to monitor the crucial and horrible Israel-Hamas-War-related events constantly. As it is the full-time job of the company's CEO, Former Lockheed Martin senior executive Dr. Haden Land.

If you don’t yet get the risk management point, how many ways must Dr. Land and I say it to you, our respected reader, before you get it? The Israel-Hamas War presents a significantly enhanced risk of a bio sneak attack on Israel, the US, and one or more of their allies. And possibly, if things go badly enough, a full-blown bio war.

Never let it be so.

Of what to be aware? What are the details?

If the current conventional weapons war is not managed correctly, things might get out of control to the extent that one or both of our fears might be realized. If this risk materializes to one degree or another—and if our government agencies and businesses are not adequately prepared—the damage to life and property (and our culture and way of life) could be devastating and catastrophic—perhaps irrevocably.

Dr. Land and I keep blowing the whistle, but only some hear it—and then listen to what it means for them, their enterprises, their employees, and their families.

You might recall that during the first wave of COVID-19, the US economy was damaged in the range of $14T (and on top of that, 1.1M deaths of people worth countless trillions of dollars if we quantified their highly discounted financial value as courts often crudely and cruelly do).

Both numbers are astronomically large. But you hear little in the press about them anymore. We wonder why. Fatigue? Fear? Pain? Guilt? (After all, it was mostly the “disposables over 60” who died.) Too upsetting to look anymore?). We can’t stop reminding them that everyone who died was someone’s son or daughter. And many were aunts or uncles, and parents or siblings. They were not disposables.

And all but certain businesses deemed “critical enterprises” were shut down for lengthy periods. Many companies lost employees to their competitors and failed to recruit appropriate replacements, even temporary ones. And many businesses in specific industries, such as the meat-packing industry, forever closed their doors.

Things might be worse for the next significant wave of COVID-19, especially when combined with substantial waves of the Flu and RSV. If the three diseases were disguised as nature-made and spread by human or mechanical agents of Hamas and its allies, things might become five- to ten-fold worse.

Why might Hamas use a weapon of mass destruction?

Hamas and its allies have already shown they care little about the rules of war. When they performed a sneak attack to kill a thousand unarmed Israelis and Americans, they made this abundantly clear.

Nothing in the moral, ethical, religious, or legal code of Hamas and its allies would inhibit or prohibit them from using a weapon of mass destruction. Some commentators say they lack “ethical and moral sanity.” And these evil groups “believe only in pure barbarism and brutality.”

We do not go that far. We hope many of their troops are redeemable. And we do not condemn those Palestinians who entirely reject Hamas and its hatred of the Jewish people—and its desire to wipe Jews off the face of the earth through organized genocide. 

Why not nuclear?

The strong likelihood of quick and massive retaliation is the critical deterrent here. Atomic weapons are typically more powerful immediately, near-term, and long-term. Chernobyl’s still destroyed land is strong evidence of this.

But they are detectable in seconds and retaliated against in minutes. And a more massive retaliation can be launched against sponsors and proxy in just a few minutes more. No modern nation, absent insanity, will use them or authorize their proxy to use them. Hamas and her allies are passionate but far from insane.

On the contrary, they have stated and written repeatedly that they are committed to the mass destruction of Israel and the US. They intend to stop nothing short of a complete genocide. They are committed people who mean what they say and will do it if they can.

So, if desperate, cornered, and about to be destroyed, why wouldn’t Hamas and its allies (or Hamas alone and without authorization from its sponsors) look to and pull the trigger on a weapon of mass destruction if it was the right weapon? Perhaps for them, this weapon would be a massive attack of infectious disease—spread through one method and means or another.

Likely, they would not. But they might. And there now is an enhanced risk that they would. And we must all be aware of this risk, and especially our agency and business leaders must make sure we are adequately prepared.

Why do Americans have such little concern?

Because the Middle East is so far away and on the other side of two oceans (one in each direction), and because people living in the Middle East have been warring on and off for centuries without changing much, Americans do not yet get that they are the direct (not just indirect) target of Hamas and her allies’ rath.

It has not been easy to wake them up to this fact. But for their sake, and the world’s sake, they better wake up soon to this fact and what to do about it.

We have written over 100 articles or posts on different aspects of this risk. But only after the sneak attack by Hamas on Israel have we “gone ballistic” with our concerns. The level of risk increases daily. And if other mid-Eastern countries join the war, the rate of increase will escalate.

If you go massive, what are the further details on why not go nuclear? Why is bio so much more preferred?

In a “Wall Street Journal” article referenced below, the author opined, like us, that for many reasons described below, the next world war (there is always a next world war) will be a bio war, not a nuclear war.

We take this thought to another level. We believe a regional war conducted by a desperate enemy, such as Hamas, with or without the permission of its nation-state sponsors, could lead to a bio sneak attack by our enemy when they are “cornered.”

Suppose Hamas and her allies decide to use a weapon of mass destruction, possibly including a “dirty bomb” (a mixture of explosives, such as dynamite, and radioactive powder or pellets capable of spreading radioactive material for a short distance), which might be the only nuclear weapon to which they might have access. Why would they instead use a bio sneak attack, not a nuclear one?

The seven pros and cons of nuclear vs bio

There are at least seven reasons why they likely would prefer to use a bioweapon. We list here a. few of the reasons making nuclear weapons a poor choice. After this, we list the reasons making bio-weapons a far better choice.

1. Launching a nuclear weapon is a readily detectable event. (This factor is essential in knowing almost immediately the “when and how” of launch with a high degree of certainty.)

2. It is measurable in minutes, not weeks. (This factor is vital in knowing almost immediately the “what and where” of the point of landing and the likely size, direction, and level of spread with a high degree of certainty.)

3. The geographic source of the launch is readily detectable. (This factor is valuable in pinpointing the terrorist group and/or nation-state responsible for the launch and identifying the best target for massive retaliation for the first launch and deterrence from further launches.)

4. The spread of nuclear particles or fallout is readily detectable on-site at the target post-explosion and distribution. (Even the spread of only a small number of particles can be detected hundreds of miles from the bomb’s blast crater, whether the missile, bomb, or parcel is shot, dropped, or placed.)

5. It is detectable in minutes, not weeks. (The flash, sound, and jar of a large nuclear weapon explosion can be detected manually almost instantly from many miles away. If a large weapon is used, even nuclear detectors located a hundred miles from the bomb’s blast zone will sound an alarm in minutes and might be detected hundreds of miles away by countries downwind of the explosion.)