Former FDA Second-in-Command & COO and Harvard Faculty Member Dr. John Norris Speaks: It is A Race Against Time: Again, We Are Not Prepared for the Coming Catastrophe

America (and most other countries worldwide), including its government and prominent quasi-government and private institutions, companies, and the like, got caught off guard when COVID-19 struck out of the blue three years ago. It was a sneak attack by nature or by humans. In either case, the lack of preparedness was astounding.

Today, thanks to government or commercial aircraft, an outbreak in any location can shift to anywhere in the world in just 24 hours, and often far less. The bubonic plague killed half the world's population and took years to spread. Today, not camels but airplanes are the vehicle of choice.

Like the attack on Pearl Harbor, but far more sophisticated (infectious diseases are the ultimate stealth weapon) and devastating, the COVID-19 attack killed over a million Americans, not just the roughly two-thousand Americans who regrettably died at Pearl Harbor. Yet the Pearl Harbor attack created dozens of times more shock, fear, and disdain for the lack of unpreparedness by America's government and business leaders.

For the unpreparedness at Pearl Harbor, admirals, generals, and even the President were viciously attacked by public opinion. Yet, when the devastation was 500 times greater this time, few government officials or corporate officers were attacked, lost their jobs, or worse, punished. And there is almost no lasting leader concern or public fear regarding COVID-19 or the next pandemic. We have washed our hands of it. It never really happened. And it never will happen again, at least in our lifetimes. Wrong!

So why the difference? I very much would like to know why. 

Like in the case of my public calls for academic studies to identify (1) the precise source(s) and, if human, the intent of the worldwide spread of COVID-19 and (2) the reasons for the poor management of its transmission, I now call for academic studies of (3) "why" we were so vastly unprepared? What was America's intent, and, more particularly, what was the intent of America's leaders when preparation, execution, and communication were continuously so wrong or inadequate? 

Why were they so unprepared? At every stage, before, during, and after. And why did we not demand far better, then? And now? Instead, we forgot or put our heads in the sand and pretend there is no ongoing risk regarding COVID-variants or other pandemic-scale diseases that are just around the corner. Why? What is the mass psychology involved? What can we do without using unfair scare tactics to wake our leaders and the public to the significant ongoing dangers?

Here are a few specific questions I would immediately research using psychological, socioeconomic, and political science methods, among other scientific methods: 

(1) Was it that there were other more critical demands on scarce funding (which I doubt, but we will see)? 

(2) Was it ignorance of the magnitude of the risks (almost certainly)? 

(3) Was it all government or business politics (isn't it almost always; the squeaky wheel gets the grease)? 

(4) Was it the lack of scientific warning of the risks and critical dangers of being unprepared (likely)? 

(5) Was it hubris that our continued reliance mostly on 1918 strategies and methods would be enough (almost certainly)? 

6) Was it a belief that this could never (or at least while the leader now or in the future was still an incumbent in their leadership post) happen and, therefore, preparedness now would be a waste of time, money, and political capital for them (has it been ever thus)?

Others may ask more, different, or more profound questions. But you get the point. We need to know at least the basics of what is going on. We can all sense the significant ongoing danger, but we choose to ignore it, perhaps out of acclimation to or exhaustion from this source of fear.

In the meantime, let me share my threshold thoughts. I am prepared (eager, really) to significantly adjust or refine this thinking once scientists complete the studies. But let me attempt to enhance America's leader's frame of reference now to stimulate the beginning directly of a (1) robust "Preparedness Campaign" and associated (2) "Strategic Action Plan" containing well-planned actions leading to (3) timely and aggressively executed critically needed robust counter-measures and preventive or mitigative actions. 

Together, these are immediately and desperately needed. We can't wait until another million Americans die before we act this time. But who is sounding the alarm? Am I alone? Why aren't you, at least within your organization, so you help protect yourself and your family and coworkers and their families and preserve your jobs and job satisfaction? 

Sadly, unlike the 420k Americans who died in WWII, you will find no monument to the million-plus Americans who died during the COVID-19 war over the past three years. Nor, unlike the 58k Vietnam War casualties, will you find a list of their names carved in granite. In this COVID-19 war, three to 20 times more Americans were killed (and even far more were significantly injured).

But they are already long ago buried, and even more sadly, we have long forgotten them. You could ask 100 people who it was that died. Most of the 100 would not know the name of one.

These victims of the war have no presence in America's "current Psyche." And the same is true for the global psyche. If visible weapons didn't kill them and weren't people "who mattered," we could easily forget them. They just disappeared.

We likely will find that most of the deaths were among three groups of Americans. Those who were: (1) financially disadvantaged or genetically at higher risk, (2) placed in poorly run nursing homes (improperly run either directly by their CEO or indirectly by federal or state government mandate), and (3) low-paid, high-risk front-line employees (many of them Black or Hispanic) working in cramped and otherwise highly disease-exposed workplaces and high-risk jobs.